Online Newspaper Revenue: Puny AND Persuasive (to broadcasters)?
NewsFutureBy Gordon Borrell.
Ive had a series of interesting conversations lately, keyed around a new report on local Web site earnings. The study pulled back the veil on whos making what on the Web. The basis of the report was data from more than 400 daily newspapers and TV stations, plus months of tedious research into how the local Internet dollars are flowing for competitors like AOL, AutoTrader.com, Monster, TV stations, Yellow Pages and others.
The result was a fascinating peek at how $1.65 billion in local Internet ad dollars are being divvied up. The big headline was that sites run by daily newspapers were snaring 40 percent of those dollars. We found:
Small newspapers or the 85 percent of the industry whose circulation is 50,000 or below average $5.84 per unit of print circulation.
Medium-size newspapers with circulation up to 200,000 average $13.69.
Large newspapers above 200,000 circulation average $20.41.
Combined, the industrys 1,475 daily newspapers generated $655 million in local Internet ad dollars in 2002. Local broadcast TV stations, of which there are about 1,300, generated barely one-tenth that amount.
2002 Newspaper Online Revenue By Print Circulation
While we can draw some broad conclusions about Internet earnings for the newspaper and TV crowd, not everybody fits the mold.
A few months ago I called an executive at one large newspaper from whom we were trying to extract online revenues for our report. Armed with the knowledge of revenues from 140 newspaper sites at the time, I boldly guessed how much his online operation was making.
I was wrong by a factor of 2.2. His site was grossing millions more than I had guessed.
About two weeks later someone from a mid-size newspaper came up to me after a conference presentation. He handed me his card, and I asked the circulation of his newspaper. By then I was armed with the knowledge of revenues from about 200 newspapers, so I boldly guessed that his site made about $350,000.
I was wrong. It made $0.
Just the other day I got a letter from a publisher in Connecticut whose site, I had projected, could be making as much as $430,000 if his Web site adopted best practices. I truly thought the revelation would shock him and that hed pick up the telephone and say please, oh please, tell me how!
His note was brief and to the point: If our newspaper does as poorly as $430k, the publisher wrote, Ill fire everyone involved!
And so goes the business of trying to fit Web sites earnings into a mold.
The fact is, some sites run by daily newspapers are doing phenomenally well compared with their peers. It is typical to see some newspaper sites making three to four times the average for their peer circulation group. Yet there are others that are trying hard (even a few that have won awards for spectacular site features) but performing poorly on the revenue side.
This inward look at how well the newspaper industry is doing is a step toward an important benchmarking process. It shows newspapers how well they compare against their peers. But as my colleague Clark Gilbert from Harvard Business School says, the best newspapers are just the prettiest of the ugly stepsisters.
Looking outside the industry, we found that six public newspaper companies generate less than half as much revenue per unique user as six of their non-newspaper peers. This group includes AutoTrader.com, Monster.com, HotJobs, eBay, Yahoo!, and CNET Networks. While the newspapers generated an average of $7.93 per unique user in 2002, their competitors generated $17.12.
I have a theory for this. All the competitor sites mentioned are pure-play Internet companies that a) have complete dependence on Internet revenues and b) are not dependent on financing, resources or demands of a parent company focused on a competing medium.
One might argue that Monster and AutoTrader.com arent exactly pure-play Internet companies. Monster is owned by TMP Worldwide, which makes money off traditional print businesses like Yellow Pages and newspaper recruitment ad commissions. And AutoTrader.coms parent is a print classified company as well, Trader Publications, publishers of Auto Trader magazines. But TMP derived nearly half its revenue from online operations last year, and you could say that AutoTrader.com derived 100% of its $80 million from online products because it is indeed a separate entity owned only partly by Trader Publications. (eBay also happens to be part-owner of AutoTrader.com, along with Cox Communications and Landmark Communications.) When it comes to per-unique-user revenue, even with that print affiliation, AutoTrader.com and Monster.com blew the rest out of the water. AutoTrader.com had $33.33, Monster.com $37.91.
Perhaps the strongest evidence of all that newspaper companies just cant be focused on the Web rests in how puny their Internet revenues look on the corporate spreadsheet. We found that online revenues at a dozen public companies averaged barely 2% of total company revenues. For a company the size of Journal Register Inc., which owns 23 newspapers, its 2002 online revenues of $4 million represent the equivalent of one of their smallest newspapers.
Online Revenues as a Percent of Total Newspaper Revenues
|
Online |
Total |
% of |
Avg. Circ. |
|
| Journal Register | $ 4,000,000 | $ 407,754,000 |
0.98% |
24,348 |
| Lee Enterprises | $ 8,800,000 | $ 580,306,000 |
1.52% |
25,000 |
| Media General | $ 6,100,000 | $ 836,800,000 |
0.73% |
36,000 |
|
NYT Regional Newspapers |
$ 2,900,000 | $ 408,750,000 |
0.71% |
44,000 |
| Gannett | $ 86,000,000 | $ 5,651,000,000 |
1.52% |
57,447 |
| McClatchy | $ 22,200,000 | $ 1,081,898,000 |
2.05% |
127,273 |
| Knight Ridder Inc. | $ 55,300,000 | $ 2,841,594,000 |
1.95% |
129,032 |
| Belo | $ 19,500,000 | $ 1,427,764,000 |
1.37% |
235,000 |
| Tribune | $ 76,699,000 | $ 5,384,428,000 |
1.42% |
240,000 |
|
New York Times Co. |
$ 71,800,000 | $ 2,670,257,000 |
2.69% |
1,600,000 |
| Dow Jones | $ 50,230,000 | $ 1,559,173,000 |
3.22% |
1,800,000 |
| Washington Post | $ 35,700,000 | $ 1,082,300,000 |
3.30% |
1,900,000 |
[1] Media General, Tribune and Belo interactive divisions manage TV online operations; therefore their total company revenues include TV station revenues for a fair comparison
These are very small earnings, even though the growth of Internet operations at the public companies last year averaged 23% while overall newspaper revenues were flat. Yet we shouldnt be too hard on newspapers, and in particular the public companies. When we compared their Internet earnings against the newspaper industrys average online earnings 11 of the 12 public companies outperformed their circulation peer group for Internet dollars per unit of circulation.
So where is the industry headed? Does all this analysis of newspaper online operations provide any meaningful insight into the future? Yes, absolutely. If the past is any predictor of the future, Id say that daily newspapers will continue to be formidable Internet aggressors. Their 23% revenue growth last year outpaced Internet advertising growth. They have successfully used their print product to seize a dominant position in local Internet advertising. About one-third of all sites were profitable in 2002, with many more reporting month-to-month profits by the fourth quarter of last year. It is a dominant position in a growing business where a key indicator of future performance audience share is enormously undervalued. The Internet surpassed newspapers last year in terms of the time consumers spend with the medium, yet online operations generated less than 3 cents to every dollar generated by daily newspapers. (But is it a dominant position in a growing business, or a marginal business?) Were seeing a lot of activity by local TV stations and even local cable operators trying to tap into local Internet dollars. But their efforts pale in comparison to the seven years of aggressive build-out, promotion and relationship-building that newspapers have put into their Web operations.
Finally, these Web operations may be tiny revenue blips on a newspapers income statement, but their intrinsic value is likely to skyrocket when the Federal Communications Commission allows cross-ownership of TV and newspapers in the same city. Heres why: In our research into TV station Web earnings, we found that the average station generated $3 in new broadcast advertising to $1 in online advertising. In other words, TV stations were able to use an online-on-air combo package to generate advertising dollars that the station would not have ordinarily gotten. What does this mean? It means successful newspaper Web operations are likely to be seen as multipliers of broadcast revenues in any newspaper-TV ownership deal.
Online ad revenues wont be puny forever. In short order they have surpassed billboards and magazines, and before the decade ends they will have grown larger than magazines and yellow pages. If, as I strongly suspect, newspapers lose their print classifieds entirely, we could see Internet surpassing newspapers in 15 years.
Editors Note: You can find an executive summary of the Borrell report at www.borrellassociates.com. The full report sells for $595.
May 27, 2003 | E-MAIL | SAVE | PRINT | PERMALINK | DISCUSS(0)
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